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A Patient Investor

When I first did the sums for Royal Spice Gardens, I calculated that it would take us six years to Return the Investment. This was based on a much reduced vanilla price of $50 and it taking three years before the first crop comes in.

Of course, I should have said four years, for the crop to mature and be processed takes another year.

Nevertheless, this assumption remains true now we have access to more precise figures. And if we consider the more likely sales price of $250, the timeline comes forward a year. Costs are heavier than expected, mainly in following international regulations for our investors, but the calculations were conservative so this is covered.

What I did not include in the original figures were contributions from our Associates.

These were not included because at that stage, I didn't know if it was realistic and because the calculations are conservative.

Today, we have enquiries from farmers before we promote the concept, which is simple. Any vanilla farmer may become an Associate Planter entitled to call his plantation a Royal Spice Garden if he follows the following rules.

  1. He must grow vanilla according to our organic instructions.
  2. He must harvest when we confirm the crop is ready.
  3. He must sort and deliver the green vanilla to our factory within 6 hours of harvest.

We will process and export the vanilla, and pay him 70%. The entire process is transparent.

Adding Associate Planters into our model, we increase the turnover tenfold, but profitability much less, as we only take 30%. Nevertheless, it brings forward our ROI date to 2025, with the potential for dividends in 2022. These figures take no account of share value, just dividends. Needless to say, our Associate Planters will do very well, which is the object of the exercise.

We don't know how popular this programme will be, so it is too early to be precise, but first indications are it will be popular.  We have received requests from other islands as well as around Bali.

In addition to vanilla being grown by ourselves and associates, we are requested to supply more vanilla, which means we must buy from other producers. At this stage, we are evaluating this with a high degree of caution, for there are many pitfalls.  So, not included in the financial model, nor are projections from agarwood or essential oils.

Coming back to our Patient Investor, he bought shares in us in 2021, not expecting a dividend until 2024. Three years without any return. After which, he expects to getghis investment back in dividends within another three years, with the dividends growing to be more than his original investment every year within ten years. Now we have good news for him, because with Associate Planters coming on stream, this timescale is brought forward a year... and growth should be steeper.

The chart below shows the expected returns on an investment of $10,000. The first line is the annual dividend based just on our own vanilla, while the second line shows the dividend based upon both our own vanilla and that of our Associate Planters.

Assumptions: export price of vanilla is $250/kg throughout.  Dividends are 50% of profits. Two clusters of 5 associates the first year with one hectare each for vanilla.

I haven't mentioned share value.  There is no market maker, at present. Nevertheless, with these returns the shares are under valued. Our advisors want to increase the share price in the near future.

Before we agree to this, I want to find out if there are any patient investors out there.  We offer superlative returns, but you have to be patient.

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